The event – commonly dubbed a yield curve inversion – was largely viewed as a signal the U.S. economy would likely slip into recession in the near future. An inverted yield curve occurs when ...

Discover why short-term Treasury bills at 4.30% interest could be a secure investment amidst economic uncertainty.

The economist Robert Solow, who died in December, once said that everything reminded Milton Friedman, his fellow Nobel ...

President Trump's tariff shock that drove a sharp selloff in long-duration Treasurys has pushed a closely followed plot along ...

The tariff pause has temporarily stabilized markets, but underlying issues & high volatility persist. Find out why interest ...

An inversion of the yield curve—a chart plotting returns on debt of various maturities—historically has been a sign that a recession is on the way.

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, one of the most reliable signals of recession, is flashing red again. As of March 2025, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields remains inverted ...

The chart shows that these periods ... Since the 1970s, a yield curve inversion has occurred before every recession. The only blemishes on its record are the 1998 and mid-2022 inversions, which ...

During the “Tariff Tantrum” of 2018–2019 — sparked by the U.S. slapping tariffs on steel, aluminum and billions in Chinese goods — global markets braced for ...