For four months many economists have predicted that US inflation would reignite, in large part due to President Donald Trump’s trade war and the knock-on effects his tariffs would have on the economy.

Inflation was tame in May, defying fears that the impact of President Trump’s tariffs would start to show a rise in prices. Consumer prices rose 0.1% in May over the previous month, less than economists anticipated.

U.S. inflation picked up a bit last month as higher prices for groceries and some imported goods were largely offset by cheaper gas, travel services, and rents.

The economic vibes are improving, with consumers' inflation expectations falling last month for the first time in 2025. On Wednesday, CPI was also cool.

The forecasts could change again before the formal COLA announcement in October if higher U.S. tariffs cause prices to increase over the summer. The official announcement of 2026s

Underlying US inflation rose in May by less than forecast for the fourth month in a row, suggesting companies are finding ways to limit how much of higher costs from tariffs they pass through to customers.

Here are the key points to know ahead of this morning's consumer-price index for May: Year-over-year inflation is expected to pick up slightly from April to 2.4%, according to the consensus estimate.

A lower-than-expected increase in inflation last month shows that the impact of the Trump administration's tariffs on the U.S. economy remains muted—but these numbers are far from convincing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, experts say.